All US economic series are pulled from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis FRED database, which aggregates over 840,000 time series from the BLS, BEA, Federal Reserve Board, Treasury, Census Bureau, and other primary sources. Every chart links back to its source series ID.

Daily series (Treasury yields, equities, oil, gold) refresh every weekday after market close. Monthly series (CPI, unemployment, payrolls) update on their official FRED release schedule, usually within 30 minutes of publication by the source agency. Weekly series (jobless claims, mortgage rates) update on Thursday/Friday mornings.

The composite score (0-100) is computed daily from seven independent recession signals. Each signal that is currently "tripped" (exceeding its historical threshold) subtracts proportionally. A score of 100 means no signals tripped; 0 means all signals tripped. The score then maps to a regime label: expansion (75+), caution (40-74), or recession (below 40).

• 10Y-2Y yield curve — inverted (below 0) since Estrella & Hardouvelis
• 10Y-3M yield curve — NY Fed's preferred recession probability input
• Sahm Rule — 3-month average unemployment up 0.50pp from 12-month low
• Initial claims trend — 15% above year-ago level
• High-yield credit spread — above 6.0% (junk bond stress)
• Unemployment rise — 0.5pp above 24-month low (NBER pattern)
• Leading Economic Indicators — 12-month change below -0.5

Headlines, the 60-Second Brief, Economic Weather, and section narratives are generated daily by OpenAI's models (gpt-4o-mini for most content, gpt-4o for the long-form brief). All numbers in the output are checked against the input data — the model is not allowed to invent figures. A banned-word list prevents speculative or dramatic language. If generation fails, the previous version is kept until the next refresh.

The UK is the first non-US country live on NEAI. Coverage is intentionally narrower than the US for v1:

• Roughly 10 indicators are tracked vs. 60+ for the US.
• The recession signals use US-calibrated thresholds for now — UK-specific calibration is on the roadmap.
• When fewer than three recession signals are available (the UK currently has one), the composite reports a neutral score of 50 instead of letting a single trip dominate the read.
• Some categories (housing, the full yield curve) have limited UK data on FRED and are sparse.
• FTSE 100 is sourced via Yahoo Finance because no FRED equivalent exists.
• Scotland / Wales / Northern Ireland breakdowns are not provided — UK as a whole is the level of analysis.

No proprietary indices. No black-box models. No advertising. No investment advice. No paywalls. Every threshold is published. Every calculation is reproducible. Every series links to FRED.